Thinking In Bets Annie Duke Pdf [best] Jun 2026

Most people treat “I’m not sure” as weakness. Duke reframes it as superpower. By admitting uncertainty upfront, you open the door to updating your beliefs when new evidence arrives. The most dangerous people in any organization, she warns, are those who are 100% certain.

Duke provides devastating examples: A CEO makes a risky acquisition that succeeds due to a market bubble—she’s hailed a genius. Another CEO makes the same calculated risk but a black swan event tanks the deal—he’s fired. Same process, different results. Thinking in bets forces us to decouple the two. thinking in bets annie duke pdf